The Mubarak Question

   On February 11th, 2011, Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak stepped down because of substantial protests to his 30 year reign. A military council run by his former defense minister Huessein Tantawi has taken control since his ousting. Since then Mubarak and many of his staff have been arrested and put on trial. This has polarized the nation.

Mubarak

Egyptian Protests Under Mubarak
 
  I have some strong opinions on this. I do think that Mubarak should be put on trial. He was a bad man, but he did do some good things. He was peaceful towards Israel and did help fight terrorists. However, he did murder his own people and oppress them for 30 years. I find the split interesting, I think they need to try him and punish him, whether it's death or jail, both for closure and justice.

   My second opinion is about the ruling military. Many people believe that military is dragging it's feet in moving to freedom. I think that is true, Tantawi has been in power for 20 years, he won't just give that up over night. The military is trying to stay in power as long as they can. They should be very careful not to stand in the way of the people for to long, they can be thrown out just like Mubarak.

Tantawi

   Egypt has a very uncertain future. Will the military council crack down like the Syrians are or will they give in and avoid a possible civil war? We'll have to wait and see, but do remember those who don't know their history are doomed to repeat it, lets hope they learned a lesson when Mubarak was kicked out.




source: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/01/17/mubarak-trial-encapsulates-divisions-in-egypt/

Yemen on the Precipice

   Early today a city of 40,000 people in Yemen was taken over by a force of Al Qaeda militants. The city, Radda is just 100 miles south of the country's capitol. Yemen is currently ruled by the authoritarian president Ali Abdullah Saleh who will step down in a few weeks because of massive protests. Many people accuse the president of allowing Al Qaeda to capture Radda and two other southern cities so he can create a crisis and stay in power. President Saleh has been a strong ally in fighting Al Qaeda but America called for the president to step down about a year ago and withdrew all support.

   I have a few thoughts on this. First this is a danger to the entire region. Yemen is located just south of Saudi Arabia, which is one of our biggest allies. A pro-terror state to its south and an increasingly aggressive  Iran to it's northeast is very unsettling. In addition to that if Yemen falls to Al Qaeda Oman may follow and then the United Arab Emerates. The world could be facing another domino effect similar to the one that happened in Asia during the cold war. My next thought is on President Saleh. He is a bad man. He killed thousands of his own people in an attempt to stay in power, however he was able to keep Al Qaeda in line. The fact that Saleh is letting these militants take cities and not pushing back in order to stay in power is sickening. This man is bad on every level.

President Saleh

   So overall Yemen is in crisis. Once their president steps down like planned they should launch an aggressive assault on the captured southern regions of the country. The people should put their leader on trial for killing protesters and neglecting to protect the country. If Yemen falls it will make the middle east even less stable and will make travel through the Suez canal even more dangerous.

Yemen's location shows how if it falls it can threaten access to the Suez canal, ships passing through the area would have to deal with both Somali pirates and Yemenite pirates.


Original news story and video: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/01/16/report-al-qaeda-militants-capture-town-in-yemen/?test=latestnews#ixzz1jc0NR3IE

second source; http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57359577/yemen-town-captured-by-al-qaeda-militants/

A House Divided Cannot Stand

                                                          The Flag of Iraq


   All American forces pulled out of Iraq in December, thus ending an eight year war. Since then Iraq has encountered a few problems. Most of the attacks are targeting the Shiite majority, 11 were killed Monday and that brings the total to about 150 dead this year.

   This is obviously bad for Iraq and shows many things about the country. First it shows that the country isn't united. We live in America, where we have a proud history of uniting, whether we're democrats or republicans or conservatives or liberals, when something happens we stand united. Iraq is very different. The two sects of Islam, Sunni and Shiite have been fighting for over a thousand years. In Iraq they were only kept peaceful by the ruthless dictator Saddam Hussein.

 Now that there is not dictator to keep them united, the two types of Islam are clearly against each other. The Sunni minority are planning attacks on the Shiite majority because they feel they have no say in their government.Another example of the religious conflict is when the Shiite government issued an arrest warrant for the Sunni Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi. They accused him of helping plan bombing attacks and running a death squad that killed Shiite Politicians.

                                                        Tareq al-Hashemi
                                         

   All of this threatens Iraq in a few ways. The first way is that it's own government could become deadlocked or someone could take over from the inside. If the military views the government as to weak there is a chance it will stage a coup. However that isn't very likely because of the military's size and its decreased influence from the Saddam days. Another possible outcome is the continuation of the Arab spring in Iraq. Iraq witnessed major protests about corruption and the government promised reforms. If the Iraqis want more change they may want to take to the streets and peacefully protest again. A third outcome is destabilization and civil war. During the American occupation Iran armed, trained, and supplied militants in Iraq. They may still be doing it and may continue to do it to destabilize Iraq. They could then either attack this weak Iraq or they could hope to overthrow the government and secretly support a new radical regime.

   Hopefully the people of Iraq will be able to stand united just like we have done for over 200 years. In the words of Abraham Lincoln, "a house divided against itself cannot stand".


News Video on the bombings:
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2012/01/05/72-killed-in-anti-Shiite-bombings-in-Iraq/UPI-35251325765599/

A video on the VP's arrest warrant:
http://www.france24.com/en/20111219-iraq-issues-arrest-warrant-vice-president-hashemi-maliki

Fear Factor?

 

    Well it's not quite "The Fear Factor" on T.V. but was else explains what happened earlier today?  Earlier this morning an Isreali radio station announced the largest American-Israeli war games scheduled to happen in early 2012. The war game would practice dealing with incoming missiles or other attacks to Israel. Originally the radio station reported that it was due to monetary issues but later in the day Israeli commanders explained the U.S. requested that the drills be delayed.

   Personally I am stunned by the move. Holding these drills would be a bold response to an increasingly aggressive Iran. This attempt at appeasement by the two strongest military powers in the world is stunning. Looking at history appeasement didn't work with Hitler and it won't work with Iran. We should have held these drills (which would  help protect Israel from an Iranian missile attack) to show we are prepared for anything Iran does. We've moved a second carrier group into the gulf to counter their Strait of Hormuz threat, why are we stopping now?  Imagine turning the heat on in your house but not closing any windows. It's the same thing, we've dealt with one problem but there is still another problem.  We should be moving to counter their missile threat as well. We are afraid it will provoke the Iranians, but they aren't ready to attack us and they won't because of these drills. All we're losing here is an opportunity to be ready for an attack that could possibly happen in the future. To quote Thomas Jefferson, "A coward is much more exposed to quarrels than a man of spirit."

The original news story is here: http://www.theblaze.com/stories/largest-ever-u-s-israel-military-drill-postponed-amid-rising-tensions-with-iran/

Second source: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501713_162-57359591/israeli-us-war-games-postponed/

Iranian Navy Not Behavy

    A few weeks ago the Iranian Navy practiced war games in the Strait of Hormuz. The strait, which is the only route in and out of the Persian Gulf. These games were the Iranian navy practicing on how they would close the strait if they ever wanted to. About 20% of the world's oil passes through the strait. In addition to that, the Iranians warned us not to send one of our air craft carrier strike groups back into the region (we always have 1 in the gulf or nearby, the one stationed there was out of the gulf itself for other reasons but was still in the area)

   What does this mean for us? Well my opinion is it means a few things. First it shows Iran getting even more bold. They are trying to show their growing strength by showing off their new navy, much of which was built in Iran (which is a big thing for them, in the past they bought most of their ships) This goes hand in hand with their nuclear program. Iran is trying to be the tough guy on the block, the one everyone is afraid of. Iran is calling the U.S., and the global community out to see what we will do.

   What should we do? I think we should use the advise people give when dealing with a bully. Stand up to Iran. In response to their threats we're sending another aircraft carrier into the gulf, and that's a good. In addition to that we told the Iranians that a closing of the strait will not be tolerated. The final thing I'd like to see happen is see U.S. war games keeping the strait open. That will show the Iranians we are training to deal with they're threat.

                                                                 American Aircraft Carrier

source: http://www.theblaze.com/stories/reuters-iran-to-practice-closing-strait-of-hormuz-crippling-gulf-oil-exports/